Sunday, December 12, 2010

Weekly Forecast - Dec. 12th

Last week the bulls continued to run the market up slowly but surely.  Let's see what is in store for us this week.

The S&P500 has finally moved passed the 1227 level.  The bulls still hold control of this market, and will take a big drop for bears to have a chance.  Bears will need to claim the 1220 and 1173 level before taking back control.  Dip buying has been very strong so far and should continue as the market goes on.  In weeks prior we have been lucky to see one or two days come down before the market goes back up.

The futures market shows the strong finish to last week, and shows the strong uptrend we are still in.  Any pullback here should be a small one, and should be faced with more buying.

The currency pairs have started to move out of sync of equities as of late but we will still need to keep an eye on them.  EUR/USD has been trading nicely up against the top of its downward channel.  It appears to be leveling off at this level so a break of the channel could be in the works.  If a break does happen the next point of resistance will be 1.3442.  Added support will come in at the 200 day and 150 day moving average. 

GBP/USD has been moving in a solid uptrend ever since the bounce off of support.  It has now pushed its way through the resistance at 1.5524 and is coming up against the 50 day moving average.  A break here would be more support for the bullish cause.  Failure here could take us back down to support.


This pair is the main one not correlating with equities because of the weakening of the Yen that has been happening.  Still we will watch it as the pair form a nice cup and handle.  This pair trades nicely off of the 50 day moving average which will add support if it drops.  Again, we will need to be careful watching this pair.

NYSI Reversal Indicator
This reversal indicator is a great tool to any investor and should be watched closely.  While it is a good indicator it is not completely accurate with the timing.  The indicator  has now reached the extremes and started to cross over.  This would signal more movement to the upside, and not a time to enter into more shorts. 

Pretty normal week for economic reports with:
Monday: Nothing
Tuesday: Producer Price Index, Retail Sales
Wednesday: Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, Housing Market Index
Thursday: Housing, Jobless Claims, Phili Fed Survey
Friday: Nothing

The bulls still remain in control of this market and going against them at this point would be difficult.  Any pullback does not last for long so take advantage of it by finding more long positions.  Will be watching the the currency pairs to see if we get a break of their resistance lines. Look for the bulls to continue to drive this market up.

Good luck in your trades.

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