Morning Madness

Neutral

• Futures are down slightly this morning
• CPI 0.5% vs 0.4% expected
• Core CPI 0.1% vs 0.1% expected
• Retail Sales Ex-Auto 0.5% vs 0.6% expected
• More economic reports due out in 20min
• EUR/USD has enjoyed a huge run up and now is looking at resistance at 1.344 and support at the 50 day moving average 1.332
• GBP/USD has also made a nice run after breaking the downward trendline and is now finding support at 1.58
• USD/JPY is having trouble clearing the 50 day  moving average at 83.03 - will watch for a break of this level to determine direction
• S&P500 has cleared the 1276 level and has started to pull back
• Bulls need to continue to hold the 1276 level
• Bears will look for a close below this level but more importantly shoot for the 1262 level
• Bulls still have the market until we break the 1262 level
• Dip buying continues so watch this market after the weak opening

Stock Watch



FSLR

FSLR is forming a nice inverted head and shoulds pattern.  The neckline is right at the gap which makes the resistance even stronger.  FSLR has enjoyed a nice run so a sideways consolidation would be perfect here.  We should expect some kind of pullback or consolidation before pushing to much higher.

Morning Madness

Bullish

• Futures are up moderately this morning
• No economic reports due out today
• Market found support at 1262 level where it was quickly bought up
• Head and shoulders on the SPX 60min is still in play
• Market could play out like on Sept. 1st and Dec. 1st bouncing off of support and a big breakthrough to the upside
• EUR/USD is trying to bounce back at these levels - resistance at 200day moving average 1.307
• GBP/USD still trying to get through the 150 day moving average - resistance at the downward trendline 1.562
• USD/JPY showed weakness yesterday as it broke under support
• Bulls still need to claim the 1276 to put this consolidation to rest
• Bears are still looking to claim the 1262 level to drive this market down
• Dip buying remains strong as we saw yesterday

 Stock Watch

ALKS

ALKS has a nice gap to fill and has been consolidating nicely at this point.  Wait for a break of the 200 day moving average at 12.68 before going long and use that point as a good stop loss.  Good risk/reward in this trade.

Morning Madness

• Futures are currently slightly negative
• No economic reports due out today
• EUR/USD is trying to bounce back a little this morning
• GBP/USD is still trapped between the 150-200 day moving averages
• USD/JPY still trading above support, will watch for a bounce here
• Overnight weakness occurred in the /ES and could help drive this market down
• Bulls need to push past the 1276 level to further this market -at least hold the 1262 level
• Bears need to start by taking over the 1262 level
• If bears can take the 1251 level then they will have finally put in a lower-low
• Dip buying has still been strong and could continue so be careful

Stock Watch

MU (long)

 MU has put in a nice resistance at 8.78 so wait for a break of these levels before going long.  You have good support from all three moving averages.  Could place a stop-loss at the low of 8.40 which will give you 4.5% risk.

BFR (short)

 BFR has had a nice run up from last May but now looks like it is creating a top.  It has built good support at 11.16 so a close below this would be a strong sign of weakness.  You also have the 50 day moving average trading above helping drive this stock down. 

Portfolio - CSCO (long)

Went long on CSCO this Friday with a break of resistance.  Decided to go long on CSCO to play the gap fill giving us a lot of room to the upside.  There is also a clearly defined hammer candle from Thursday that should lead to further upside.  Our buy-stop of 20.97 (purple line) was hit and filled in the morning and our current stop-loss is 20.52 (red line).  At that stop-loss we are currently risking about 2.2%.



CSCO



Morning Madness

Bearish

• Futures are currently slightly positive
• Jobless Claims came in at 409k vs 405k expected
• Continuing Claims came in at 4103k vs 4070k
• EUR/USD showing some weakness as it pushes below the upward trendline - now bouncing off of the 200 day moving average
• GBP/USD is now back under the 150 day moving average also showing weakness
• USD/JPY is bouncing nicely off of support and the 50 day moving average
• A sell off here would create a double top in the S&P500
• Bears still look to overtake the 1262 price level
• Bulls need to continue to hold and push higher above the 1276 price level

Stock Watch

CSCO

 

CSCO has formed a nice round bottom and is approaching its gap.  Would wait for a break of 20.96 before going long on this trade.  Could see a nice gap fill on this stock.  Also good to see the 50 day moving average now trading below the price action which will add extra support and a stop-loss point.

RIG

RIG is finally coming back from the BP disaster as it looks to fill the gap and continue the push up.  It has been on a nice run up since last June.  It looks to be leveling out here a bit for some consolidation before another push higher.  It follows the 50 day moving average nicely so look to that for added support/resistance.  Wait for a break of 75.34 before going long on this position.

Morning Madness

Neutral

• Futures are currently slightly positive and have sold off a bit from the highs
• Factory Orders due out at 9am CST
• FOMC minutes due out at 1pm CST
• Market should quiet down around the FOMC minutes
• Auto sales due out at the end of the day
• EUR/USD coming up against resistance and 50 day moving average 1.344
• GBP/USD coming up to the downward trendline at 1.57
• USD/JPY had a nice bounce and could retest its breakdown level 82.79
• Currency pairs and markets did not line up yesterday
• Set tight stop-losses on my positions to not lose the profits of yesterday.

 Stock Watch

FOE

 

 Here is a long position I really like, FOE.  It is in a nice ascending triangle looking to break out.  Right now it is up 2.8% in premarket so it will break the 15.52 resistance when it opens.  I would wait for a pull back to 15.52 before entering this position.

CSTR (short)

CSTR is setting up to be a nice short.  Created a nice roundtop has it looks to fill the gap.  54.94 has been a strong resistance so a break down below this level is a good short entry.  Profit target would be the gap fill

Portfolio Update - DF (long)

Unfortunately I was unable to post the Morning Madness this morning due to a prior engagement.  I did however set an order to buy DF on a break of resistance.  Here is the chart:

DF

With the pop this morning my order was filled and then quickly went no where all day.  Due to previous action with gaps we have a tight stop and a tight target on this one.  We will be back tomorrow with our Morning Madness and a couple more stock picks.

Portfolio Update - NVDA (long)

Went long this morning on NVDA with a nice breakout of strong resistance.  Entry price was 15.28 and stop-loss is at 14.86.

NVDA

Morning Madness

Neutral

• Futures are slightly down this morning
• No economic reports due out today
• EUR/USD is still running up, look at the 1.344 level as resistance
• GBP/USD had another run up back to the 150 day moving average, need a break at this level
• USD/JPY continues its decline, will find support at 80.18
• Last day of the year, volume should be weak
• Again, be careful on entering any trades this week as volume shouldn't be there
• Happy New Year Everyone! Be Safe!

Stock Watch

TOO

TOO has a nice gap to fill here.  It is already made the resistance strong by testing it several times.  Wait for a break of 27.90 before going long.  Price target of 28.85 (gap fill) will be a solid 3.4% move.

UEPS

UEPS is another gap play.  You could also play it on a break of the downward trendline it has created.  Playing the trendline should be a good play since it will come with a break of the 150 day moving average.  You could see resistance at the gap line.  You could also play the break of the gap of 13.08 if you prefer to be more conservative.  Again I would look to take profits at the gap fill.  If you play a break of the trendline you are looking at a 5.3% move.  If you play a break of the gap you are looking at a 2.1% move.  Both are solid plays.

Morning Madness

Neutral

• Futures are currently slightly negative
• Jobless claims came in at 388k vs 416k expected (lowest level since July 2008)
• Continuing claims came in at 4128k vs 4060k expected
• A lot of strength found in the EUR/USD as it continues off of the 200 day moving average
• GBP/USD is trapped between the 150-200 day moving average
• A lot of weakness in the USD/JPY
• Volume continues to dry up as the year comes to an end
• Be careful on entering the market with such small volume

Stock Watch

SBH

 SBH has a nice ascending triangle as it runs up against support.  Yesterday it bounced nicely off of the lower trendline to put it right back at resistance.  Wait for a break of resistance before entering the trade and a good stop loss is under the trendline.

Morning Madness

Bullish

 

• Futures are slightly up this morning
• Few reports coming out today: Case-Shiller and Consumer Confidence -nothing major
• EUR/USD bounced nicely off of the 200 day moving average
• GBP/USD bounced off of 200 day and now headed to 150 day moving average
• USD/JPY fell through support and the 50 day moving average
• Market filled its gap yesterday and finished slightly up
• Bulls pushing for the 1260 price level
• Bears trying to get back to 1246
• Volume was light yesterday do to seasonality and the snowstorm
• Volume picture in the SPY below

Volume Decline in SPY

 Stock Watch

CSC

Nice cup and handle pattern formed on the CSC with all three moving averages below adding support.  Wait for a break of the trendline before entering.

LTC

LTC had a nice breakout at 27.58 and is now hitting resistance and putting in a nice cup formation.  Could see a handle being formed out of this, so if we don't get a break today keep watching in the days ahead.  Conservative stop-loss would be below the price level of 27.58

Morning Madness

• Futures are slightly down to almost flat
• Economic reports came out mixed
• Jobless claims and continuing claims continue to lower
• Personal spending and durable orders missed expectations
• USD/JPY bounced off of strong support
• EUR/USD slipped below the 150 and 200 day moving averages
• GBP/USD moved between the 200 and 150 day moving average
• Light volume today as it is the last trading day of the week
• Market closed tomorrow for Christmas Eve
• Dip buying still strong
• I closed most of my positions, will be looking to short puts into the new year

Stock Watch

AGM

 AGM putting in a nice inverted head and shoulders.  Looks for a break of the neckline before entering the stock.  I would put the stop-loss right below the low 12/20/10 @ $15.00.
 

YUM

YUM Brand Foods is creating a nice triangle.  Look for a break of the trendline at about $50.46.  Aggressive stop right below the 50 day moving average.  More conservative stop below the lower trendline.

Portfolio - SYK (long)

Featured SYK back on 11/08/10 (http://bullogic.blogspot.com/2010/11/watchlist-longs.html) when I said I was adding it to my watchlist.  Bumped it from the watchlist when I went to a long position on 12/10/10 on a breakout of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.  Saw some sell off today and a bounce off of breakout levels.  Good strength in this stock today and should continue into tomorrow.

SYK

Portfolio - CX (long)

Added Cemex, CX, to the portfolio two days ago on a breakout of a head and shoulders and downward trend.  This chart had to major resistance levels meet, so a breakout of these would be a clear buy sign.  CX keeps trying but has been unable to close above the breakout level.  Entry point was 10.10 and stop-loss at 9.76

CX

Portfolio - APOG (long)

sWent long on APOG two days ago, 12/6/10 because it had a cup and handle pattern from a downward gap.  You could also call this an inverted head and shoulders.

APOG

Entered on the break at $12.10 and exited it today at $12.50.  This was my original plan to enter on the break and exit on the gap fill.  Quick and easy profit.  I have a couple of buy alerts at various prices for later reentry.

More Longs for the Watchlist

I was out scoping for some longs this weekend and here are a couple more I will be adding to the watchlist.

IKAN
Gap and Saucer

ATVI
Strong Resistance

BSX
Inverse Head and Shoulders

TAM
Ascending Triangle

VOD
Island Reversal

ESV
Cup and Handle

STT
Cup and Handle

Long LOW

I went long on LOW yesterday on a market breakout, and it has not disappointed. 

LOW

Entered trade yesterday on the market open as I knew it would gap above its breakout level.  A better entry would have been two days ago when it closed right above its 200 day moving average.  Stock is already up ~8% so I will be tightening my stop-loss to protect those gains.

Watchlist - Longs

Here are some potential longs in the watchlist.  Some of these have already broken out and now would be a good time to buy in, and some need a bit more time.

TGT - Inverse head and shoulders just broke out yesterday.  Pattern dates back to late 2007.

TGT

SAFM - Nice strong resistance, waiting for a good breakout

SAFM

WFMI - Trying to break out of anice consolidation pattern.  Seen this pattern in the past on this chart.  Big gap up, consolidation, another run up

WFMI

PXD - Broke out to all time highs yesterday

PXD

 

 X - Finally broke out of strong resistance.  Could see more a bit more resistance at the dotted red line

X

COG - About to break

COG

Watchlist - EFX (long)

Here is another possibly long which has the saucer after the gap down.

EFX is sporting just that.  There are several ways to play this one.  With the market currently down you could wait for a pull back and then go long, or you can set a buy stop right above where it's consolidating and enter there.

EFX

Watchlist - NVDA (long)

Here is one of my favorite patterns forming in NVDA

NVDA

The saucer pattern from a down gap.  We have a nice fill coming and any further break to the upside could make a good long position.  Place a stop-loss right under where it is consolidating.